Just as many players overlook
the effects of position and exposed cards to lower the
value of a hand, so too do they sometimes overlook extra
outs to increase the value of a hand. An out is a way
of improving your hand. With four hearts your only out
is another heart. But suppose you have two pair along
with the four-flush against what looks like aces up. Now
you have two outs - making a flush and a full house. Suppose
you have a four flush, two pair, and an inside straight
draw.
Now you have three outs - that is, three ways of beating
your opponent with the aces up, assuming that player doesn't
fill. Each extra out increases the value of your hand,
and it increases it considerably more than may at first
be apparent. Starting off with a two-flush and a pair
in seven-card stud is significantly better than starting
with a pair and no two-flush. In hold 'em, a back-door
straight (that is, a possible straight requiring two perfect
cards at the end) or a back-door flush draw along with
a pair may be enough to change a fold to a call.
To see how much effect these extra outs have, let's say
we assess our hand as a 7-to-1 underdog. Now we notice
we have an extra out that is about 20-to-1 against coming
in. By itself that extra out is a long shot, but it adds
tremendously to our chances of improving. Changing those
7-to-1 and 20-to-1 odds to percentages, we have a 121/2
percent chance and about a 5 percent chance, which, added
together, comes to approximately 171/2 percent. Returning
from percentages to odds, we see that the extra out has
dropped us from a 7-to-1 underdog to a 43/4-to-1 underdog.
With pot odds of, say, 5-to-1 or 6-to-1, a hand we would
have folded now becomes one worth playing. Always be aware
of extra outs. Otherwise you may fold hands with which
you should have called.